We are less than a year away from the culmination of the quadrennial American hoopla known as a Presidential election year. There are so many things on our minds these days that the 2012 election must be anticipated as critical to the country's future. Some people talk about making political and governmental decisions on "gut instinct" or via other similar use of that part of the human anatomy. In other words, ignore the facts and hope that it all goes away and things get better. Ignorance preserves sanity.
Not here. My gut is for digesting food. My decisions are made with my brain. Ignorance is anathema, and sanity is an afterthought. Informed analysis of the issues must be a part of voting.
Here's a quick leftwing-ish capitalistic look at some of the things that are setting the stage for the election.
First of all, despite the fact that many voters and non-voters choose not to identify themselves with any major political party, we will still be voting in the context of a two-party system and government. Any vote cast in the national election--and in most state-wide elections--will end up in favor of either the Republican candidate, party and platform, or the Democratic candidate, party and platform. This is the way it has been for most of the last two centuries, and there is nothing on the horizon that will cause a dramatic change in the foreseeable future. Others have tried to change this political landscape--think of the Know-Nothing Party, the Bull Moose Party, the American Independent Party and more. Over time the two major parties have adopted new ideas from the insurgent parties, and they have morphed in one direction or the other, and they continue to be predominant on the American political landscape. At this point, there is nothing in the political winds that will cause a fundamental change in this two-party system.
Moving on: the Tea Party movement deserves credit for igniting a national dialogue on the overall issue of what role government should play in our lives as American citizens. That's an important issue, and it's reasonable to put it up for discussion and debate. The Tea Party is gone now, its ideas adopted by the Republican Party, and its adherents apparently eager to vote in the upcoming Republican Presidential primaries. By their own choice, as initiated in Tea Party gatherings a couple of years ago, much of the Republican ideology hinges on taxation. This is a subject that is always worthy of debate as long as it is an informed debate, and that means acknowledgment of some basic facts about taxes, such as the truth that the Federal government is funded today by taking a smaller portion of the nation's economic output than at any other time in the last six decades.
Which brings us to the Occupy Wall Street movement. At less than two months old its goal is unclear, its message is sometimes obscured, and its organization is embryonic. As was the Tea Party in its early days. My guess is that it will evolve to become more articulate and more participatory; either that will happen, or it will fade away. The spark for the Occupy demonstrations is pretty straight-forward and it is similar to the beginning of the Tea Party: it's all about money. If you want to take the time to wade through the web site for the US Census Bureau, you can eventually come upon a Census spreadsheet entitled "Table H2. Share of Aggregate Income Received by Each Fifth and Top Five Percent of Households, All Races: 1967 to 2010." According to the data presented in that spreadsheet, the "Top Five Percent Households" attained slightly over 21% of all national household income in the year 2010; in the year 1967 the same figure was just over 17%. The Occupy folks tend to present themselves as "the 99%" instead of as "the 95%" but the long-term message is the same: earnings and wealth opportunities for the great majority of the population are deteriorating.
Finally: Europe, the euro and European sovereign debt. To Americans it might seem like one big mess that should have no bearing on our lives and our economy and our politics and our election. The truth is that our future is intertwined with Europe's future, and there's no way out of it. National boundaries will persist, but there is no more national isolationism. One of the biggest driving forces behind this fact--perhaps the biggest force--is the nature and reality our free enterprise system. American banks and other corporations might be headquartered in the USA, but much of their business is done in Europe and all over the world. That is also true for European banks and other big corporations. A systemic financial failure in any of the world's major economies will affect everybody.
Now it's time to digest.
All for now. . .more later.
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