Some will read this article and conclude that I am biased, or prejudiced, or pro-Israeli or pro-Palestinian; others will conclude that I am hopelessly naive or ill-informed. In truth, I have a normal set of biases and prejudices, and am both pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian. As for the hopeless part: there's always something else to learn, and optimism--which is my nature--is much different from naivete.
As I sit down to write this, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Hamas armed forces of the Gaza Palestinians have been in armed and bloody conflict for the last three weeks. The total number of deaths is approaching 2000, and it appears that about 90% of those deaths are Palestinian non-combatants. The fundamental cause of the fighting is that the Israelis feel threatened by the animosity and belligerence of the Hamas organization; the Palestinians, for their part, feel threatened by Israel's willingness and ability to destroy and isolate, both with impunity.
It really is that simple.
Yes, of course there are many other facts involved in the present battle; some, perhaps all, of them are important, but all else that can be said, whether factually or emotionally, is derivative of the fundamental causes: each side feels threatened by the other, and for good reason. This is a problem that is now over six decades old, with little or no current hope for resolution.
No outsider--least of all myself--can impose a solution to this problem on the parties involved; they must develop that solution themselves, and they must do it jointly. At the moment, of course, these two sides have no interest in doing anything together.
Make no mistake about the outcome of the current battle: the IDF will win. The rockets and tunnels used by Hamas to threaten Israel will be greatly diminished or eliminated; perhaps even Hamas will be destroyed as a governing and fighting organization. Israel will gain a measure of security, which it deserves; the Israelis will suffer relatively little in order to accomplish this. The Palestinians of Gaza will gain nothing, and will lose much and suffer greatly; they deserve better, but "better" will not happen for them if recent history is any guide.
Similar battles have been fought in recent years between the IDF and Hamas, with similar results. You would think that the leaderships would notice the futility, tragedy and expense of this, and then decide to try something different. In that regard, Israel's government and Hamas share a gruesome bond.
Through its endemic corruptions and ineffectiveness Hamas has utterly failed its constituents of Gaza. By denying Israel's right to existence and security, Hamas also prohibits the development of leadership for the Gazans, since leadership depends upon the ability to recognize reality, and also to recognize that mass hallucinations are eventually overwhelmed by the greater massiveness of reality.
Israel's government, for its part, is equally guilty of ineffective leadership, although in more subtle ways. Its subtly hides an inability to recognize that the future of Israel is one of decline unless it develops a new strategy for living alongside the Palestinians.
The IDF does a good job of winning Israel's battles, but each battle which is won--in a military sense--incurs a greater cost for Israel in larger ways. Not only does the majority of the rest of the world take notice of and deplore the toll of Palestinian non-combatants in these battles, but there is a growing sense that Israel has willfully established itself as overlord of the Palestinians, and yet accepts and fulfills only the most rudimentary responsibilities of overlordship, and does so reluctantly and minimally.
International sentiment is turning away from Israel. This is a great cost for a small country. The IDF wins the battles, but Israel might be losing the war, because the total cost of winning those individual engagements is disproportionally high for the size of the country.
Some twenty-three centuries ago King Pyrrhus had a similar experience. His army fought battles with the Romans and others; the King's forces won those battles, with fewer casualties than their opponents. But the cost to King Pyrrhus, in relative terms, was higher than it was for the other side, and so King Pyrrhus lost the war. (He also lost his life in battle; possibly this happened because he wasn't aware that the greater part of the world--as he knew it--had turned against him.)
The State of Israel deserves to exist in peace and security. Likewise, the Palestinians deserve their own State of Palestine that will exist in peace and security. Both sides deserve leadership that understands and acknowledges that these are fundamental and equal requirements for achieving a peaceful coexistence that is mutually beneficial.
As said above, there's no way to impose a solution from the outside. However, if it were up to me, I would say that the only way to get to a solution is for both sides to be willing to give up something of great value to the other side. Probably the only thing left of value to the Palestinians--certainly the Gazans--is Hamas' intransigence towards Israel's very existence; they should be prepared to give that away, either through an ideological change or by removal of Hamas from the picture (peacefully, I hope, and not brutally). Such an offer would be of existential value to the Israelis.
For Israel's part, its current holding that is of great value to the Palestinians is the ability to nurture an independent Palestinian state, with all the territorial integrity that would come with statehood. Success might require that Israel give up some land that it now occupies. If the current Israeli government can develop enough foresight to see that this would be a small price to pay for existential security, then let them do it; if they cannot develop that foresight, then Israel needs a new government.
A message to the vast majorities of people on both sides in this conflict: Get yourselves some real leadership that thinks in terms of mutual respect and integrity; do so, and over time the feelings of being threatened and being insecure will go away. That means no more fighting, no more killing, no more destruction, no more lingering bitterness and misery. Finding the right kind of leadership might take some real effort, but the long-term benefits will make it all worthwhile.
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