If you had asked me to predict these events, I would have missed all of them

Here are five significant social-political events that were talked about in the 1970s and 1980s, mostly as far-out, idealistic possibilities.  If someone had asked me "Which of these do you think will happen in your lifetime, or in the next 50 years?" I would have answered "Anything's possible, but I don't think I'll see any of these happen."  At this point, four out of five have taken place, and there's still time for that last one.

Let's pick the year 1980.  That was thirty-four years ago.  It was a decade-and-a-half after the height of the Civil Rights movement and consequent legislation, as well as the Voting Rights Act, but also the Watts riots and other civil conflicts.  The Cold War was in an icy phase, and the economy didn't look so hot.  But, for me personally it was a good year--no details, just take my word for it--and I was optimistic about the future, so if I'd been asked about the likelihood of any of these five things happening by the year 2030 you might reasonably think that my response for at least some of them would have been an enthusiastic "yes, of course that'll happen!"



Nope.  I would have missed all of them.  Maybe that's because my powers of prognostication were pretty poor, or perhaps it's a measure of how much things that have been in place for so long can change so quickly, or maybe it's a combination of those things.

Anyway, here they are, in chronological order.

Event #1 -- The demise of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.  Didn't see that one coming.  That outfit had been around for six decades, it had lots of nukes and a whole fleet of really good subs and seemed to be pretty well in control of its destiny.  Within a decade of having been asked the question, the Berlin Wall was down, and then a couple of years later the U.S.S.R. was a relic of history.

Event #2 -- America has a black man (or woman) as president.  Technically, Barack Obama is half-and-half based on the ethnicity of his parents, but that's close enough for government work.

Event #3 -- Resumption of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba.  When thinking about this in 1980, it was obvious that there was no point to the embargo and diplomatic shunning of Cuba, since the neighboring nation was--at the time--clearly a dependency of the U.S.S.R, but still sovereign, and we had full diplomatic relations with Moscow even though it was far more threatening to American well-being than Havana could possibly have been, but making the change just didn't seem to be worth the effort.

Event #4 -- That #3 would be the result of #2.  Not in a million tries would I have guessed that one.  In 1980, if any of us had expected a black president, we probably would also have figured that the first black president wouldn't want to rock the political boat any more than absolutely necessary.  That last point almost proves that predicting the future, if there's any science to it, is more chaos theory than anything else.

Event #5 -- America has a woman as president.  So far, of course, this has not yet happened.  In 1980, much of the conversation about women's empowerment had to do with equal pay for equal work--an issue that still needs progress--so my odds at that time on a woman as U.S. president in the next fifty years were less than 50%.  Politically, things look different now, and there are still four presidential elections to go before 2030.  I think I'll end up being 0 for 5.

Never bet big money on things staying the same; they don't.

(This post updated for clarity regarding event #5 on December 12, 2014.)